Breeders' Cup Championship Saturday Picks

All the waiting and anticipation is finally over.  The questions will be answered today.  Can Zenyatta do it?  There are plenty of fantastic races leading up to her historic run tonight at 6:45 PM ET on ESPN. 

Here are my picks for most likely winners, not a predicted order of finish, which is quite different:

JUVENILE TURF

I'll be honest.  I have no idea in this race, but I'll give a hat tip to my buddy Mike for coming up with a nice choice that makes good sense:

SOLDAT (8-1) - After an impressive three-length graded stakes win over the Saratoga turf in September, in his next graded race, Soldat hit the gate, was bumped in the lane and still finished second.  I like the two graded stakes races.  I like his speed figures.  And I like the fact that he closed into a slow pace in his last after much trouble and still almost won.

BANNED (10-1) - He hasn't faced much competition (but neither had AWESOME FEATHER before her romp yesterday).  Banned has won his last two races with ease, and the Proctor barn is high on him.

PLUCK (6-1) - Could Pletcher and Gomez have the Juv. Fillies Turf and Juvenile Turf double?  More Than Real got the first half.  Pluck has drawn a terrible post position (13 of 13), so he could be a toss-out on that fact alone in a one mile race, but this field is a mystery, so why not?

I have no Europeans in my top three.  They were shut out on day 1, a trend I don't expect to last into day 2.  I don't love any of them in here, but I'd give MANTOBA the best shot if you want to go with a Euro.

SPRINT

GIROLAMO and BIG DRAMA are the favs here, and they both have a legitimate case for winning.  But this race quite often produces a longshot winner.  So let's see if we can find him:


KINSALE KING (8-1) - Two races back, he finished behind top European sprinter Starspangledbanner in a Group 1 at Ascot.  If the Turf Sprint were 6 furlongs instead of 5, KING would be in that race, but he's here, he looks great in the morning and he has a touch of class.

WISE DAN (10-1) - He's only three, facing elders, but gee, he's been impressive so far, winning his last three by almost 20 lengths combined.  His trainer, Charles Lopresti, was on fire at Keeneland, taking 6 of 10 starts.

HAMAZING DESTINY (20-1) - I'm not one to pick D. Wayne Lukas horses very often, but this one seems in sharp form, and he seems to like Churchill.  He's stepping up pretty severely in class, but he'll be a nice price, and he's not without a shot in here.

TURF SPRINT

Shoot me now.  They might as well just pull out the roulette wheel for a turf sprint at five furlongs, but let's give it a whirl.  It's almost impossible to win this race from a wide post, so I'm tossing out posts 10-14:

STRADIVINSKY (10-1) - On paper, he does not have the class to win this race, but races aren't run on paper, and if he gets a good break from the three hole, he could be gone.  At five furlongs, this guy is deadly, and he isn't facing a bunch of monsters in here.
 
ROSE CATHERINE (6-1) - Of the four fillies in this race, she's coming out of the fastest races and has won five of her last six, none of them graded stakes races, however.

SILVER TIMBER (4-1) - If someone's going to come late to win this, it'll probably be him. 

CENTRAL CITY, QUICK ENOUGH, BRIDGETOWN AND UNZIP ME are other potential candidates in here.  This race is why they invented the ALL button.

JUVENILE

This seems to be your classic East Coast vs West Coast vs Godolphin matchup.  UNCLE MO is the favorite, but let's try to beat him:

BOYS AT TOSCANOVA (5/2) - This is a HUGE colt with reams of potential.  He's also the only runner in here with experience over the Churchill track.

JB'S THUNDER (12-1) - He's got a couple of routes underneath him, which is fairly rare in this bunch, and he's trained by Al Stall, Jr, who is excelling at the moment.

BIONDETTI (12-1) - Godolphin has won the last two BC Juveniles, and this entrant, took the same path as last year's winner VALE OF YORK, who also won in Italy before coming to the Breeders' Cup.  I'd sort of lean against a three-peat, but this horse is three-for-three.

THE MILE

For once, we have a race that comes up a little chalky.

GOLDIKOVA (6-5) - I played against heavy favorites Winter Memories and Midday yesterday because I thought they were both vulnerable.  Goldikova is in another league.  She has won the most Group 1 races in European history.  I doubt that she'll be beaten, but there a couple of others with a shot in here.

GIO PONTI (4-1) - He's in top form, and he's all class.  He will be in the money.

PROVISO (12-1) - She's won four in a row, mostly against females, but she's got a nasty late kick.  The wide post doesn't help her case, but she could figure in this.

PACO BOY has been Goldikova's whipping boy in Europe, losing three races to her by two necks and half a length, so he's hard to toss, but he doesn't win often enough for me.  SYDNEY'S CANDY is an interesting item, who will try to take them gate to wire, but GET STORMY will be pestering him, and the closers seem to have an edge in here.

DIRT MILE

HERE COMES BEN (6-1) - The progeny of Street Cry seem to like Churchill.  BEN has won four in a row, all at seven furlongs, two of them at Churchill.  He should love the extra furlong as he will be charging home late. His trainer is hot.

TIZWAY (6-1) - This dude has faced some serious competition (namely Quality Road, who would be the heavy favorite in here).  And he's stood up well.  Won his last by five lengths.  HERE COMES BEN may have to come get him.

MORNING LINE (7-2) - He's only three but boy was he game in that Pennsyvlania Derby win.  He ripped through some solid fractions, lost the lead and came back at 'em to win.  Cuts back in distance, but how much did that race take out of him?

TURF

The scratch of the favorite Workforce doesn't change much for me.  I was playing against him anyway.  I'm sure a lot of his money will switch to Bekhabad, so I'll try to beat him too:

AL KHALI (10-1) This kid showed a wicked turn of foot in his last race while changing from his usual frontrunning tactics to take back early and make a late run.  He gets the services of jockey Julien Leparoux, who is deadly on the turf.

DEBUSSY (10-1) - He beat Gio Ponti in the Arlington Million in August.  Gio Ponti would likely be the favorite in this race.  DEBUSSY has also run well against the likes of TWICE OVER (3rd in last year's Classic).  He rates a chance to take this field gate to wire at the 1 1/2 mile distance.

WINCHESTER (8-1) - This trainee of turf master Christophe Clement beat 3-year-old turf star Paddy O'Prado in his last race and lost a neck to Al Khali prior to that.  He'll be coming late and maybe taking this thing down.

THE CLASSIC

It's finally here, the race we've all been waiting for.  Drumroll please...

ZENYATTA (8-5) - This is not just a sentimental pick.  I want her to win, yes, but from a handicapping standpoint, what's not to like?  Yes, she's only beaten the boys once, in last year's Classic, but she's bigger than they are, she has a longer stride than they do, AND the pace of this race ought to set things up perfectly for her late charge.  Haynesfield, First Dude, Etched and Quality Road will all have designs on the lead.  Queen Z will love the long Churchill Downs stretch and as long as Mike Smith gets her in position early enough, she is going to make history.

BLAME (9-2) - Not very creative, I know, but it's hard to argue with this guy's performance in 2010.  He will probably get first jump on the leaders and Zenyatta might have to run him down. He is game and well-trained.  The most likely upsetter.

HAYNESFIELD (12-1) - This runner scares me a bit.  He looks unbelievable right now, and if somehow, he's able to dictate a slower pace than appears on paper, he could be mighty tough to catch.  He'll probably have too much company on the front end, but he's a threat.

I believe QUALITY ROAD, as good as he is, will have a tough time because he will have to jet out of the gate from the one post.  LOOKIN AT LUCKY certainly rates a chance, but he's drawn far outside and has only faced three-year-olds.  A must use underneath is MUSKET MAN.  This dude has NEVER finished out of the money, and he's faced some of these before.  FLY DOWN will be coming late for a piece of the action as well.

Best of luck to you today.  I hope you can enjoy every minute of his historic day.  I know I will.

Breeders' Cup Day 1 Diary

A strange and wonderful opening day for the Breeders' Cup, which went something like this for me:

1:30 PM - Arrive at my University of Louisville parking lot.  Walk to Churchill in brisk wind - real feel temperature = 46 degrees. 

2:00 PM - Arrive at press box, survey the beautiful surroundings from 6 floors above the track:



4:00 PM - The Marathon, the most boring race in the BC (or so I thought) goes off.

4:03 PM (or 7 years to a dog later) - Eldaafer streaks to the wire in front of Prince Will I Am.  I later learn that Eldaafer's trainer has been developing his "slow-twitch" muscle fibers to improve endurance, a nice piece of intel I would've preferred to have had at 3:55 pm.  At least I included him on my pick 3 ticket, which is still alive.

4:05 PM - Someone yells FIGHT! in the press box.  I thought two reporters were pummeling each other or something.  We all scurry to the terrace to discover that below us, Calvin Borel is attacking his fellow jockey, Javier Castellano for cutting him off during the race.  Borel gave new meaning to Ragin' Cajun.  Hey, world, this a passionate sport!  But is there a boxing division below featherweight?



4:10 PM - Official results posted.  Prince Will I Am disqualified, meaning my pick, Gabriel's Hill at 25-1 finishes second.  I only bet him to win.  I mentally pull a Borel on myself.

4:20 PM - As I'm writing up the recap on the Marathon for The Paulick Report and looking up boxing terms, I quickly glance over my picks for the Juvenile Fillies Turf and realize that I had picked New Normal based on his last race at Woodbine (which I loved) and the fact that the Churchill turf had been playing to speed.  But now, I'm fairly certain it's not playing that way anymore.  I still love the race he came out of, so I switch my pick to More Than Real, who closed from the back and finished second in that race.  He's 13-1.  I'm definitely against Winter Memories because well, everyone else seems to think she's a lock.

4:53 PM - Nice call, dude.  More Than Real storms home ahead of Winter Memories, keying a decent trifecta, since I liked Kathmanblu also, and he finished third.  My pick 3 hits and pays $230 for .50.  Since my previous BC betting has been an unmitigated disaster, I take a moment to appreciate me learning something - always be willing to adapt.

5:40 PM - After having tossed 8-1 Dubai Majesty onto my Pick 4 ticket at the last second, I'm relieved when she wins impressively in the Filly and Mare Sprint.

6:15 PM - My pick in the Juvenile Fillies, Awesome Feather, wins at 4-1.  Unfortunately, I didn't do enough with it (I do have to work, you know), so I'm a little disappointed to have the winner and not much to show for it.  At least I'm still alive in the Pick 4.

6:55 PM - I am now dead in the Pick 4.  45-1 Shared Account stuns the press box by beating heavy favorite Midday in the Filly and Mare Turf.  Oh well.

7:25 PM - I hear rumblings that my pick, Life at Ten, is not looking well for the Ladies' Classic.  I don't like last minute rumblings.  I adapt once again and go with my second choices, Unrivaled Belle and Blind Luck, focusing on Unrivaled Belle on top because she's 7-1 and Blind Luck is the 9-5 favorite.

7:30 PM - Oh, what a night!  Unrivaled Belle holds off Blind Luck keying a nice score to round out the day.  It was my best BC day ever, although my joy was tarnished by the incident with Life at Ten.  Based on the information available, the stewards should've held up the start of the race to look into what was being broadcast on ESPN about Life At Ten.  Thankfully, nothing bad happened, but it was unsettling that she was allowed to race.  It all happened so fast - there's probably plenty of regret about it this morning between the track and her connections. Maybe a lesson learned.

I'm sure the racing gods will punish me Saturday for having a good day on Friday but the glow from the Twin Spires and the excitement of Zenyatta's historic run will more than make up for it.

Breeders' Cup!

It's finally arrived - the most exciting two days in racing.  The Kentucky Derby gets more attention from the general public, but the Derby is one single race for three-year-olds.  The Breeders' Cup is a collection of 14 races, representing many of the best horses in the world.  There is nothing like it.

This year's BC at Churchill Downs in Louisville is more highly anticipated than ever because Zenyatta is seeking to end her career a perfect 20 for 20, one of the greatest feats in sports history.  She's the only female in the BC Classic, which is the closest thing racing has to a world championship.  If you don't watch any other BC race, make sure you catch the Classic, 6:45 PM ET Saturday on ESPN.  It will be drama of the highest order.

It's all the more exciting that I live in Louisville now.  I've been going out to Churchill in the mornings to watch the workouts, and the place is alive with anticipation.  Throngs of fans have come out, hoping to catch a glimpse of the big, beautiful mare known as Queen Z.

But there are other storylines at the BC.  Goldikova, seen above, came over from Europe again to try and do something no horse has done - win three straight BC races.  She is remarkable, consistently beating the top male horses in Europe and the US.  When she turns into the stretch, it's like she has rocket boosters on her legs.  She explodes to the wire with a turn of foot that seems to defy physics.  I'd try to catch that race, too (Sat. 4:40 PM ET, ESPN). All the races will be on ESPN, ESPN 2 or ABC.  Schedule here.

I attended the official Breeders' Cup welcome party last night at the Yum Center, the sparkling new home of the University of Louisville basketball team.  Wow.  The BC knows how to throw a shindig.  The entire concourse was filled with fine food and drink and country star Toby Keith performed to cap off the night.  I met one of the owners of Kathmanblu, a two-year-old filly running in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.  He said his brother-in-law had been trying for 30 years to have a horse good enough to run in a race like this.  There are stories like that in every BC race.  As Churchill track announcer Mark Johnson told me recently, horse racing has the most drama you'll find outside of a theater.

I'm thankful to be working this Breeders' Cup (covering it for The Paulick Report) because it's cold here in Louisville.  The high today is only mid-40's, but I will be in the toasty warm press box, six floors above the Churchill track.  Should be great viewing.

In case you want to follow the races or even wager a few dollars, here's a link to my picks for BC Day 1.  I'll post my picks for championship Saturday by tomorrow morning.

I hope you get a chance to enjoy the drama and excitement that is the Breeders' Cup!